Bill Marx
Sporting News NASCAR Wire Service

February 19, 2009 -- Here’s a look at the top five in points and five drivers to watch in Sunday’s Auto Club 500. All statistical references are for Sprint Cup races at Fontana unless otherwise indicated. Driver rating is based on the past eight races at the track.

1. Matt Kenseth, 110.8 driver rating. In his past seven races at Fontana, Kenseth has two wins, two fifths and three sevenths. Last year he finished 35th in the 500 and didn’t enter the top 10 in the standings until the 18th race of the season. He’s No. 1 now, and considering his consistency and perennial early-season strength, the bet here is he’ll be in the top 10 all the way into the Chase.

2. Kevin Harvick, 89.2. Harvick finished eighth and fourth last year, his first top-10 finishes at Fontana since 2005. Harvick is from Bakersfield, Calif., and a good showing at Fontana carries extra meaning. He has four top 10s in 13 starts but has been a non-factor overall, leading 32 laps, four in the past seven races.

3. AJ Allmendinger, 79.1. The only driver riding the post-Daytona wave more than 500 winner Kenseth is Allmendinger. He has been on a roll since losing his ride with Red Bull late last year. In his two starts at Fontana he has respectable finishes of 18th and 14th. Another top-10 finish would be huge for Allmendinger as he tries to secure sponsorship beyond the eight races he has commitments.

4. Clint Bowyer, 84.6. Steady Bowyer has three top 10s in six starts, with no finish worse than 20th. Finishing fourth last week in his first start in the No. 33 car with an all-new team was a big confidence boost that should carry over to Fontana.

5. Elliott Sadler, 60.8. Sadler was a half lap from winning the 500 and was disappointed with his fifth-place finish. He needs to get that out of his head and have another strong run. Although one of his three Cup wins has come at Fontana (2004), his overall record at the track is poor. He followed up the win with an eighth-place finish, but in the other 13 races, his average finish is 26.2.

5 to watch:
18. Carl Edwards, 105.3. Edwards excels at Auto Club Speedway: eight finishes sixth or better in nine starts with one win and six top fives. His only blemish is 29th in this race in 2007. His victory came last February.

29. Kasey Kahne, 99.2. Kahne was the only Richard Petty Motorsports driver who failed to finish in the top 10 at Daytona. Kahne has performed well at Fontana with seven top 10s in 10 starts, including a win in 2006. He has led the sixth-most laps among active drivers, and his driver rating is fifth best.

31. Jimmie Johnson, 119.1. You look at what Kenseth has accomplished at Fontana and wonder why he isn’t No. 1 in driver rating. The answer: Because Johnson is in the Cup series. Johnson won the pole for both races in 2008 and finished second (to Edwards) and first. In the fall race he led all but 22 of 250 laps. Johnson has three wins and four second-place finishes among his eight top fives in 12 starts.

36. Ryan Newman, 77.3. Newman finished 36th last week and had troubles throughout Speedweeks. Is it too early to start looking at drivers on the bubble for top 35 in owner points? Not at all. Newman has one top 10 in his past seven starts at Fontana, and another bad outing will really put Newman in a hole.

38. Kyle Busch, 107.6. Busch finished 23rd and 24th in his first two races at Fontana. Since, it has been seven top 10s, including his first career win in 2005. He consistently runs among the leaders and should do so again Sunday.