DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (Feb. 18, 2008) – Statistically speaking, two storylines may continue through this weekend’s race at Auto Club Speedway. One is Matt Kenseth’s success. The other is Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s struggles.

Everything worked perfectly for Kenseth last Sunday, as he captured his first Daytona 500 victory.  Don’t be surprised if he goes 2-for-2, winning Sunday’s Auto Club 500.

Statistically, the 2-mile track is one of Kenseth’s best:

Best Avg. Driver Ratings
                            Driver
Track                   Rating
Chicagoland            120.4
Dover                      114.5
Homestead              113.7
Auto Club               110.8
Las Vegas               107.8

Best Combined Avg. Finish
                             Avg.
Track                   Finish
Las Vegas               9.0
Michigan                  9.1
Auto Club               9.6
Chicagoland             9.8
Texas                    10.1

The Daytona 500, meanwhile, was not one of Earnhardt’s best days. He finished 27th, had two pit road mistakes and is generally blamed for causing a multi-car incident.

Earnhardt now gets to race at Auto Club Speedway.

Statistically, that’s not a good thing.

Auto Club Speedway could be Earnhardt’s worst track.

In his 328-race career, Earnhardt has finished 38th or worse 25 times. Three of those finishes have come at Auto Club Speedway – only unpredictable Talladega appears that many times on his personal “worst of” list.

Earnhardt has more sub-50.0 Driver Ratings at Auto Club Speedway than any other track. Since the inception of the Loop Data statistic in 2005, Earnhardt has scored 11 Driver Ratings less than 50.0.

Three of those were at Auto Club Speedway, the only track to appear more than once on the list:

Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s Lowest Race Driver Ratings

                                                                          Driver

Rk Track                  Date                   Finish     Rating

1. Indianapolis         8/7/2005                  43             27.9

2. Las Vegas           3/13/2005                42             29.1

3. Kansas               10/9/2005                34             35.7

3. Infineon               6/26/2005                42             35.7

5. Daytona              7/7/2007                  36             43.3

6. Dover                  6/1/2008                  35             43.7

7. Pocono               6/12/2005                33             45.2

8. Auto Club           9/4/2005                  38             47.2

9. Auto Club           2/27/2005                32             47.6

10. Homestead        11/18/2007              36             47.8

11. Auto Club         2/25/2007                40             49.6

That’s not to say Earnhardt hasn’t had some success out West. He finished second at Auto Club Speedway in 2006, posting a Driver Rating of 119.1 and fifth in 2007, with a Driver Rating of 118.3.

Still, according to the numbers, those finishes are rare at Auto Club Speedway. The track ranks among his worst in both average Driver Rating and average finish:

Lowest Avg. Driver Ratings

                            Driver

Track                   Rating

Homestead              67.7

Infineon                   69.0

Indianapolis             72.6

Auto Club               75.6

Las Vegas               77.2

Lowest Combined Avg. Finish
                            Avg.
Track                   Finish
Homestead              23.4
Infineon                   20.9
Watkins Glen          20.8
Auto Club               20.6
Indianapolis             20.1

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

Loop Data Defined: NASCAR statistics generated from electronic scoring loops embedded around each track hosting races in NASCAR’s three national series – the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, NASCAR Nationwide Series and NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series.