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Numbers Game: Analyzing the 3M Performance 400 at Michigan
DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (Aug. 11, 2008) – The final four events in the Race to the Chase are packed with subplots.
- There’s Kyle Busch’s attempt at 13 wins in a season. Since the schedule was reduced in size in 1972, 13 wins in a season has been the standard. Richard Petty won 13 in 1975 and Jeff Gordon did it in 1998. Busch has a solid shot a matching – and surpassing – that number. Busch nabbed victory No. 8 last weekend at Watkins Glen, becoming the 18th driver with eight wins in the first 22 races – 13 of the previous 17 went on to win the series championship.
- There’s Matt Kenseth’s goal of making the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup for the fifth time. In and out of the top 12 over the past seven weeks, Kenseth looks to stay in over the next four races. The statistics suggest he will. He has a series-best Driver Rating of 103.5 at the four remaining tracks before the Chase, as well as a win at all four.
- There’s the Chase bonus point hunt for Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson. Busch – assuming he makes the Chase – has already locked up the top seed with 80 bonus points. But both Edwards and Johnson have an excellent shot at closing the gap. Last season, Edwards won at Michigan and Bristol, while Johnson conquered Auto Club Speedway and Richmond.
- And there’s the snowballing winless drought of Tony Stewart. Stewart’s drought is at 36. He has come close to ending the slide though, earning runner-up finishes in each of the last two races. He also has the second-best Driver Rating at the next four tracks (100.6).
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Top 12 at Michigan International Speedway
| | Driver | Races | Poles | Wins | Top Fives | Top 10s | DNFs | Average Finish | Driver Rating |
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 19.6 | 90.8 |
| 2 | Carl Edwards | 8 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 7.3 | 112.5 |
| 3 | Jimmie Johnson | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 14.2 | 108.2 |
| 4 | Dale Earnhardt Jr | 18 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 16.3 | 100.7 |
| 5 | Jeff Burton | 29 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 16 | 72.9 |
| 6 | Jeff Gordon | 31 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 20 | 3 | 10.8 | 94.7 |
| 7 | Tony Stewart | 19 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 12.5 | 96.6 |
| 8 | Kasey Kahne | 9 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 13.8 | 84.7 |
| 9 | Denny H, amlin | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10.8 | 92.9 |
| 10 | Greg Biffle | 11 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 14 | 104 |
| 11 | Kevin Harvick | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 15.7 | 77.9 |
| 12 | Matt Kenseth | 18 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 9.3 | 107.2 |
Selected Driver Highlights
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Michigan International Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – however, cover the last seven races at Michigan. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
Two wins, four top fives, six top 10s
Average finish of 14.0
Average Running Position of 9.7, third-best
Driver Rating of 104.0, fourth-best
95 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
486 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 174.525 mph, fourth-fastest
1,092 (81.8%) Laps in the Top 15, third-most
335 Quality Passes, third-most
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)
Two wins, six top fives
Average finish of 19.1
Average Running Position of 13.0, eighth-best
Driver Rating of 99.5, sixth-best
93 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
Average Green Flag Speed of 174.022 mph, seventh-fastest
878 (65.8%) Laps in the Top 15, ninth-most
255 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy/National Guard Chevrolet)
One win, three top fives, six top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 16.3
Average Running Position of 10.9, fourth-best
Driver Rating of 100.7, fifth-best
67 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
482 Green Flag Passes, 10th-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 172.262 mph, fifth-fastest
995 (74.5%) Laps in the Top 15, fifth-most
342 Quality Passes, second-most
Carl Edwards (No. 99 Office Depot Ford)
One win, four top fives, seven top 10s
Average finish of 7.3
Series-best Average Running Position of 7.4
Series-best Driver Rating of 112.5
93 Fastest Laps Run, tied for third-best
519 Green Flag Passes, fourth-most
Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 174.732 mph
Series-high 1,196 (89.6%) Laps in the Top 15
Series-high 382 Quality Passes
Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
Two wins, 15 top fives, 20 top 10s; five poles
Average finish of 10.8
Average Running Position of 11.7, fifth-best
Driver Rating of 94.7, eighth-best
61 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
922 (69.1%) Laps in the Top 15, seventh-most
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)
One top five, two top 10s
Average finish of 10.8
Average Running Position of 12.3, seventh-best
Driver Rating of 92.9, ninth-best
Average Green Flag Speed of 173.845 mph, eighth-best
66.6% (623 total) Laps in the Top 15, ninth-best percentage
225 Quality Passes (average of 45.0 per race), tied for fourth-best average
Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)
Two top fives, six top 10s
Average finish of 14.2
Average Running Position of 8.1, second-best
Driver Rating of 108.2, second-best
Series-high 106 Fastest Laps Run
Average Green Flag Speed of 174.601 mph, second-fastest
1,128 (84.5%) Laps in the Top 15, second-most
315 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)
Two wins, eight top fives, 12 top 10s
Average finish of 9.3
Average Running Position of 11.9, sixth-best
Driver Rating of 107.2, third-best
74 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 174.599 mph, third-fastest
1,020 (76.4%) Laps in the Top 15, fourth-most
292 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)
One win, nine top fives, 13 top 10s
Average finish of 12.5
Average Running Position of 14.2, 10th-best
Driver Rating of 96.6, seventh-best
50 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 174.125 mph, sixth-fastest
981 (73.5%) Laps in the Top 15, sixth-most
289 Quality Passes, seventh-most
At Michigan International Speedway:
History
Michigan International Speedway sits on more than 1,400 acres in the Irish Hills of Southeastern Michigan. Groundbreaking took place on Sept. 28, 1967.
The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Michigan was held June 15, 1969.
The track was known as Michigan Speedway during the time Roger Penske was the primary owner (1996-99).
The first NASCAR Nationwide Series race was held on Aug. 15, 1992.
The first NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race at Michigan was held on July 24, 1999.
Notebook
There have been 78 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Michigan International Speedway since the first race there in 1969. Other than 1973, which had just one race, there have been two races each season since 1969.
The first Michigan race was 500 miles in length; the second was scheduled for 600. The track was re-measured to 2.04 miles for the last race in 1970 and both races in 1971 – with the race distance being 402 miles. All other Michigan races have been scheduled for 400 miles.
Donnie Allison won the first pole at Michigan.
The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was won by Cale Yarborough.
There have been 38 different pole winners at Michigan; 18 drivers have more than one.
30 different drivers have won races, led by David Pearson (nine); 17 drivers have more than one victory there.
The race winner has started from the pole 15 times, the most productive starting position.
62 of 78 races have been won from a top-10 starting position, including 45 from the first four spots. However, five of the past eight winners have started outside the top 10.
The deepest in the field a race winner has started was 28th by Tony Stewart in 2001.
The Wood Brothers have won 11 races at Michigan, more than any other car owner. Their last victory was in 1991, with Dale Jarrett as the driver.
There have been two green-white-checkered races at Michigan: the rain-delayed 2007 3M Performance 400, which was run on Tuesday (203 laps) and June 2008 (203 laps).
Hot Facts
There have been six different pole winners in the past seven Michigan races. Qualifying was canceled in June 2008.
There have been 14 different race winners in the past 18 races. Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch, Matt Kenseth and Ryan Newman have repeated as race winners there since August 1999.
Carl Edwards has finished on the lead lap in all eight of his Michigan races and is the only driver with more than one race there who has completed all of his possible laps.
NASCAR in Michigan
There have been 83 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Michigan:
94 drivers in NASCAR’s three national series (all-time) have their home state recorded as Michigan.
There have been seven race winners from Michigan in NASCAR’s three national series:
| Driver | NSCS | NNS | NCTS |
| Paul Goldsmith | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Johnny Benson | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| Tim Fedewa | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Butch Miller | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jack Sprague | 0 | 1 | 28 |
| Brad Keselowski | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tracy Leslie | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bob Keselowski | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Michigan International Speedway Data
Race # 23 of 36 (8-17-08)
Track Size: 2 miles
Race Length: 400 miles
Banking/Corners: 18 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 12 degrees
Banking/Backstretch: 5 degrees
Driver Rating at Michigan
Carl Edwards 112.5
Jimmie Johnson 108.2
Matt Kenseth 107.2
Greg Biffle 104.0
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 100.7
Kurt Busch 99.5
Tony Stewart 96.6
Jeff Gordon 94.7
Denny Hamlin 92.9
Martin Truex Jr. 91.4
Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2008 races (7 total) at Michigan.
Qualifying/Race Data
2007 pole winner: Jeff Gordon (189.026 mph, 38.090 seconds)
2007 race winner: Kurt Busch, 117.044 mph, 8-21-07)
Track qualifying record: Ryan Newman (194.232 mph, 37.069 seconds, (6-18-05)
Track race record: Dale Jarrett (173.997 mph, 6-13-99)
Estimated Pit Window: Every 40-44 laps, based on fuel mileage.
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