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Numbers Game: Analyzing the Auto Club 500 at California

 
DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (Feb. 18, 2008) – The “new car” raced at 10 of the 22 different NASCAR Sprint Cup Series tracks last season, meaning the drivers had 12 new lessons to learn coming into the 2008 season. What would the competition hold? How would the new car fare?

Lesson 1 – Daytona International Speedway – is complete and the new car offered some of the most competitive racing ever seen at a Daytona 500. There were 42 lead changes among 16 drivers. Only five times since 1972 has a Daytona 500 seen that many lead changes, and the 16 different leaders is the second-most ever.

The new car competes at another new track this Sunday – California Speedway. The series tested there from Jan. 31-Feb. 1 with Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards and Daytona 500 winner Ryan Newman posting times at or near the top of the charts.

Also faring well at the test was Matt Kenseth, who is a juggernaut at California. He has two wins and five top 10s in the last five races. Plus, for all the superstitious handicappers out there, Kenseth has a “numbers game” advantage this Sunday. A quirky coincidental sequence has him heading to Victory Lane – his last five finishes at California go like this: 7th, 1st, 7th, 1st, 7th.

But more logical prognosticators might want to go with the Loop Data. Kenseth leads in a number of categories including the key Driver Rating (113.9) and Average Running Position (7.2) statistics.

One result is likely at California – the winner of Sunday’s race will be a proven one. Each of the 11 different winners in the 15 races at California has at least one appearance in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series 2007 Top 12 at California Speedway
Driver Races Poles Wins Top Fives Top 10s DNFs Average Finish Driver Rating
1 Ryan Newman 10 1 0 2 3 2 19.5 110.6
2 Kurt Busch 11 3 1 3 5 0 11.3 70.4
3 Tony Stewart 13 0 0 3 6 2 16.7 102.9
4 Kyle Busch 7 1 1 2 5 0 11.1 133.1
5 Reed Sorenson 4 0 0 0 0 1 26.5 88.4
6 Kasey Kahne 8 1 1 3 5 2 14.3 103.4
7 Elliott Sadler 13 0 1 1 2 2 22.5 78.0
8 Dale Earnhardt, Jr 12 0 0 3 4 4 19.8 115.6
9 Robby Gordon 11 0 0 0 1 3 26.5 72.0
10 Greg Biffle 10 0 1 2 2 2 20.1 106.3
11 Bobby Labonte 15 1 0 4 5 1 17.4 85.4
12 Jeff Burton 15 0 0 5 6 0 16.0 77.8

Selected Driver Highlights – California Speedway
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from California Speedway. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)

  • One win, two top fives
  • Average finish of 20.1
  • Average Running Position of 13.5, 11th-best
  • Driver Rating of 95.4, eighth-best
  • Series-high 134 Fastest Laps Run
  • 464 Green Flag Passes, fifth-most
  • Average Green Flag Speed of 171.810 mph, eighth-fastest

    Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)

  • One win, three top fives, five top 10s; three poles
  • Average finish of 11.3
  • Average Running Position of 11.5, sixth-best
  • Driver Rating of 95.1, ninth-best
  • 70 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
  • 1,136 Laps in the Top 15 (75.5%), third-most
  • 259 Quality Passes, eighth-most

    Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M’s Toyota)

  • One win, two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
  • Average finish of 11.1
  • Average Running Position of 9.4, fourth-best
  • Driver Rating of 109.3, third-best
  • 102 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
  • Green Flag Speed of 171.985 mph, fifth-fastest
  • 1,259 Laps in the Top 15 (83.7%), third-most
  • 294 Quality Passes, fifth-most

    Carl Edwards (No. 99 Office Depot Ford)

  • Five top fives, six top 10s; one pole
  • Average finish of 7.6
  • Average Running Position of 12.2, ninth-best
  • Driver Rating of 100.6, sixth-best
  • Series-high 20 “Closer” positions (positions improved in last 10% of races)
  • 446 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
  • 1,104 Laps in the Top 15 (73.4%), fifth-most

    Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)

  • Three wins, seven top fives; two poles
  • Average finish of 11.8
  • Average Running Position of 11.6, seventh-best
  • Driver Rating of 90.2, 12th-best
  • 69 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
  • Series-high 544 Green Flag Passes
  • 1,082 Laps in the Top 15 (71.9%), seventh-most
  • Series-high 347 Quality Passes

    Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s Chevrolet)

  • Two wins, six top fives
  • Average finish of 6.8
  • Average Running Position of 7.7, second-best
  • Driver Rating of 111.3, second-best
  • 99 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
  • Series-fastest Average Green Flag Speed of 172.261
  • Series-high 1,381 Laps in the Top 15 (91.8%)
  • 325 Quality Passes, third-most

    Kasey Kahne (No. 9 Budweiser Dodge)

  • One win, three top fives, five top 10s; one pole
  • Average finish of 14.3
  • Driver Rating of 96.5, seventh-best
  • 77 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-most
  • Average Green Flag Speed of 171.583 mph, 10th-fastest
  • 946 Laps in the Top 15 (59.4%), 10th-most
  • 275 Quality Passes, sixth-most

    Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)

  • Two wins, four top fives, eight top 10s
  • Average finish of 16.7
  • Series-best Average Running Position of 7.2
  • Series-best Driver Rating of 113.9
  • 89 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
  • Average Green Flag Speed of 172.195 mph, second-best
  • 1,332 Laps in the Top 15 (88.5%), second-most
  • 256 Quality Passes, ninth-most

    Tony Stewart (No. 20 Home Depot Toyota)

  • Three top fives, six top 10s
  • Average finish of 16.7
  • Average Running Position of 10.7, fifth-best
  • Driver Rating of 101.2, fifth-best
  • 130 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
  • Average Green Flag Speed of 171.995 mph, fourth-most
  • 1,086 Laps in the Top 15 (72.2%), sixth-most
  • 280 Quality Passes, fifth-most

    Auto Club 500 Tidbits:

    History

  • Groundbreaking for California Speedway took place in November 1995.
  • The first race at California Speedway was a NASCAR Camping World Series, West race won by Ken Schrader on June 21, 1997.
  • The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on June 22, 1997 – won by Jeff Gordon.
  • September 2004 was the first night-race at California Speedway and that was also the first year there were two races a year.

    Notebook

  • There have been 15 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at California Speedway since the track opened in 1997.
  • Joe Nemechek won the Coors Light Pole for the inaugural race at California Speedway in 1997. Greg Sacks broke Nemechek’s short-lived, track-qualifying record in the second round of qualifying.
  • Jeff Gordon won the inaugural race at California on June 22, 1997. He has since won two more – in 1999 and 2004.
  • There have been 11 different Coors Light Pole winners, led by Kurt Busch (three) and Jeff Gordon (two). Qualifying was canceled in 1999.
  • Eleven different drivers have posted victories. Jeff Gordon (three), Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth (two) are the only multiple race winners there.
  • Rick Hendrick has won six races at California, more than any other car owner.
  • Eight of the 15 races at California were won from outside the top-10 starting positions.
  • Matt Kenseth won the 2006 Auto Club 500 from the 31st starting position, the deepest in the field that a race winner has started at California.
  • There have been no caution-free or shortened races at California.
  • There have been two green-white-checkered finishes at California: 2005 fall and 2006 spring.
  • Mark Martin has seven top-10 finishes, including one victory, in 14 races at California. He also failed to finish three times. One of Martin’s DNFs was his first top10 – he ran out of gas on the final lap of the inaugural race in 1997, yet still finished 10th.

    In California…

  • There have been 119 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in California:
  • 380 NASCAR drivers have their home state recorded as California.
  • There have been 29 race winners from California in NASCAR’s three national series:
    Driver NSCS NNS NCTS
    Jeff Gordon 81 5 0
    Jimmie Johnson 33 1 0
    Marvin Panch 17 0 0
    Ernie Irvan 15 3 0
    Dick Rathmann 13 0 0
    Kevin Harvick 11 32 2
    Dan Gurney 5 0 0
    Eddie Gray 4 0 0
    Parnelli Jones 4 0 0
    Eddie Pagan 4 0 0
    Robby Gordon 3 1 0
    Ray Elder 2 0 0
    Danny Letner 2 0 0
    Marvin Porter 2 0 0
    Casey Mears 1 1 0
    Dick Brooks 1 0 0
    Jim Cook 1 0 0
    Lou Figaro 1 0 0
    Danny Graves 1 0 0
    Johnny Mantz 1 0 0
    Bill Norton 1 0 0
    John Soares 1 0 0
    Danny Weinberg 1 0 0
    Ron Hornaday, Jr 0 4 33
    Jason Leffler 0 2 1
    Mike Skinner 0 1 24
    Joe Ruttman 0 1 13
    David Gilliland 0 1 0
    Boris Said 0 0 1
    Brandon Whitt 0 0 1

    California Speedway Data
    Race # 2 of 36 (2-24-08) Track Size: 2 miles

  • Race Length: 250 laps/500 miles
  • Banking/Corners: 14 degrees
  • Banking/Frontstretch: 11 degrees
  • Banking/Backstretch: 3 degrees

    Driver Rating at California
    Matt Kenseth 113.9
    Jimmie Johnson 111.3
    Kyle Busch 109.3
    Mark Martin 103.6
    Tony Stewart 101.2
    Carl Edwards 100.6
    Kasey Kahne 96.5
    Greg Biffle 95.4
    Kurt Busch 95.1
    Jeff Burton 92.8 Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2007 races (6 total) at California.

    Qualifying/Race Data
    2007 pole winner: Jeff Gordon (185.735 mph, 38.765 seconds)
    2007 race winner: Matt Kenseth (138.451 mph, 2-25-07)
    Track qualifying record: Kyle Busch (188.425 mph, 38.248 seconds, 2-25-05)
    Track race record: Jeff Gordon (155.012 mph, 6-22-97)

    Estimated Pit Window: Every 40-44 laps, based on fuel mileage


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